2 out of 10 people who read this will watch this episode. 1 in 20 subscribers will watch it. …I wonder how many subscribers who read it will watch?
The reference class problem is your problem too (Hajek, 2007) - http://joelvelasco.net/teaching/3865/hajek%20-the%20reference%20class%20problem.pdf
The Logic of Chance by John Venn - http://www.gutenberg.org/files/57359/57359-h/57359-h.htm
Is it a Crime to Belong to a Reference Class? (Colyvan et al, 2001) - http://colyvan.com/papers/shonubi.pdf
United States v. Shonubi [Shonubi III] United States District Court for the Eastern District of New York, 1995 895 F.Supp 460 I - https://sociologicalgobbledygook.com/shonubi.pdf
All models are wrong (Wit et al, 2012) - https://www.rug.nl/research/portal/files/13270992/2012StatistNeerlWit.pdf
The reference class problem and its implications for project management - https://eight2late.wordpress.com/2010/05/13/the-reference-class-problem-and-its-implications-for-project-management/
Four approaches to the reference class problem (Wallman & Williamson, 2015) - https://blogs.kent.ac.uk/jonw/files/2015/01/RCP.pdf
Symmetry is the Very Guide to Life (Hajek, 2007) - http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.318.2402&rep=rep1&type=pdf