152. Prediction Markets and Superforecasting

2018-09-05

Prediction markets: put your money where your mouth is. (Just don’t bet against the superforecasters.)

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The Good Judgment Project: A Large Scale Test of Different Methods of Combining Expert Predictions (Ungar et al, 2008) - http://www.aaai.org/ocs/index.php/FSS/FSS12/paper/download/5570/5871

Psychological Strategies for Winning a Geopolitical Forecasting Tournament (Mellers et al, 2014) - http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0956797614524255

The Promise of Prediction Markets (Arrow et al, 2008) - http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.320.1811andrep=rep1andtype=pdf

Philip Tetlock: Ten Commandments for Aspiring Superforecasters - https://fs.blog/2015/12/ten-commandments-for-superforecasters/

Forecasting Elections: Comparing Prediction Markets, Polls, and Their Biases (Rothschild, 2009) - http://researchdmr.com/RothschildPOQ2009

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/oct-23-the-virtues-and-vices-of-election-prediction-markets/

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/if-not-polls-then-betting-markets/

So You Think Youre Smarter than a CIA Agent? by Alix Spiegel - https://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2014/04/02/297839429/-so-you-think-youre-smarter-than-a-cia-agent

Putting Crowd Wisdom to Work, by Bo Cowgill - https://googleblog.blogspot.com/2005/09/putting-crowd-wisdom-to-work.html

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