Predicting the future is hard. Weirdly enough, you can sometimes do better with less information!
Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk (Kahneman and Tversky, 1979) - https://www.princeton.edu/~kahneman/docs/Publications/prospect_theory.pdf
“Curbing Optimism Bias and Strategic Misrepresentation in Planning: Reference Class Forecasting in Practice” (Flyvbjerg, 2008) - https://www.researchgate.net/publication/233258056_Curbing_Optimism_Bias_and_Strategic_Misrepresentation_in_Planning_Reference_Class_Forecasting_in_Practice
“The accuracy of hybrid estimating approaches? Case study of an Australian state road and traffic authority” (Liu, Wehbe, and Sisovic, 2010) - https://www.pmi.org/learning/library/accuracy-hybrid-reference-class-forecasting-6456