THUNK – 152. Prediction Markets & Superforecasting

Prediction markets: put your money where your mouth is. (Just don’t bet against the superforecasters.)

-Links for the Curious-

The Good Judgment Project: A Large Scale Test of Different Methods of Combining Expert Predictions (Ungar et al, 2008) – www.aaai.org/ocs/index.php/FSS/FSS12/paper/download/5570/5871

Psychological Strategies for Winning a Geopolitical Forecasting Tournament (Mellers et al, 2014) – journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0956797614524255

The Promise of Prediction Markets (Arrow et al, 2008) – citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.320.1811&rep=rep1&type=pdf

Philip Tetlock: Ten Commandments for Aspiring Superforecasters – fs.blog/2015/12/ten-commandments-for-superforecasters/

Forecasting Elections: Comparing Prediction Markets, Polls, and Their Biases (Rothschild, 2009) – researchdmr.com/RothschildPOQ2009

Oct. 23: The Virtues and Vices of Election Prediction Markets

If not polls, then betting markets?

“So You Think You’re Smarter than a CIA Agent?” by Alix Spiegel – www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2014/04/02/297839429/-so-you-think-youre-smarter-than-a-cia-agent

“Putting Crowd Wisdom to Work,” by Bo Cowgill – googleblog.blogspot.com/2005/09/putting-crowd-wisdom-to-work.html

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