THUNK – 152. Prediction Markets & Superforecasting

Prediction markets: put your money where your mouth is. (Just don’t bet against the superforecasters.)

-Links for the Curious-

The Good Judgment Project: A Large Scale Test of Different Methods of Combining Expert Predictions (Ungar et al, 2008) –

Psychological Strategies for Winning a Geopolitical Forecasting Tournament (Mellers et al, 2014) –

The Promise of Prediction Markets (Arrow et al, 2008) –

Philip Tetlock: Ten Commandments for Aspiring Superforecasters –

Forecasting Elections: Comparing Prediction Markets, Polls, and Their Biases (Rothschild, 2009) –

Oct. 23: The Virtues and Vices of Election Prediction Markets

If not polls, then betting markets?

“So You Think You’re Smarter than a CIA Agent?” by Alix Spiegel –

“Putting Crowd Wisdom to Work,” by Bo Cowgill –

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